Decomposing Venture: Elite Among Many
Investor Liaison Hannah Savage talks 'Why Only a Few Fighter Pilots and Venture Capitalists Rise to the Top'
World War II
In Me-109, Martin Caidin examines the impact of an elite few fighter pilots during World War II. He highlights Erich Hartmann, a German pilot who holds the record with 352 destructions. Additionally, 33 other pilots each achieved over 150 destructions, collectively downing more than 6,900 enemy aircraft. The takeaway? In high-stakes situations, most will freeze or flee, while only a rare few fight with exceptional courage.
The same pattern holds in venture capital. Many may attempt it, but only a select few consistently generate outsized returns and leave a lasting mark on the industry. Just as top fighter pilots can turn the tide of war, elite investors shape the future by backing transformative companies. But what sets these individuals apart? Is it instinct, skill, or something that can be trained? And how do we identify those with the potential to rise above the rest?
Law Enforcement
Dave Grossman describes how law enforcement training has shifted from a method that simply declares failure, where trainees are told, “You shouldn’t have done that. You’re dead now,” to one that builds resilience. In this new approach, instructors say, “No, you aren’t dead. I don’t give you permission to die. I don’t train people to die. I train them to live.” This change recognizes that training, when applied correctly, can determine survival and success. If misapplied, it can have detrimental outcomes.
The same principle applies to venture capital. Losing some investments, even many, may be inevitable. The real question is: how do you recover? Training must prepare investors not just to win but to survive failure and come back stronger.
Air Combat
Mike Spick, in The Ace Factor, studied the difference between "Aces," pilots who mastered air combat, and "Turkeys," those who struggled to survive. His research found that a pilot’s chances of survival dramatically increase after their first five successful combat engagements. Experience, repetition, and exposure to real-world conditions separate the best from the rest.
One key difference between training pilots and investors is the speed and clarity of feedback. A fighter pilot or soldier knows almost immediately whether their skills are effective. Success means survival. Failure may be fatal. This real-time feedback allows them to rapidly adjust, improve, and develop instincts that keep them alive.
Venture capitalists, on the other hand, operate in a very different environment. The feedback loop in investing may take years, even decades. A decision made today may not reveal its true outcome for five, seven, or even ten years. Unlike a fighter pilot, an investor may not get instant confirmation that they made the right move. They might feel like they are succeeding for years until they realize they backed the wrong companies, misjudged a market, or failed to properly support a portfolio company.
Lessons
If an investor does not get immediate feedback, how do they know their training is working? How do you build the right instincts in an environment where success unfolds so slowly?
This is where structured, reality-based training comes in. While investors cannot simulate the exact long-term outcomes of deals, they can accelerate learning by studying historical patterns, analyzing case studies, and immersing themselves in high-pressure decision-making scenarios. Just as fighter pilots train in combat simulators to prepare for real-life engagements, investors must undergo rigorous, scenario-based training that forces them to refine judgment, pattern recognition, and resilience in the face of uncertainty.
Sources
Grossman, Dave, and Loren W. Christensen. On Combat: The Psychology and Physiology of Deadly Conflict in War and in Peace. Warrior Science Publications, 2008.
Caidin, Martin. Me 109: Willy Messerschmitt's Peerless Fighter. Ballantine Books, 1968.
Spick, Mike. The Ace Factor: Air Combat and the Role of Situational Awareness. Naval Institute Press, 1988.
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